Weather

Araxen said:

This storm was supposed to hit Haiti and be a non-factor for the US, and then decided to just go north of Haiti. It shows how much more we need to learn about Hurricane tracking. The Euro and NA forecasts are still odds. That in itself is kind of insane. One has it trekking up the coast the other parks it right on Florida.

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Yup. It was supposed to be over with by Sunday and now won't even reach the same predicted location until Tuesday. That is 3 days off for same destination in under a 10 day window. Initially also showed being TS/Cat 1 on landfall due to that rapid speed.

Missing larger land masses and slowing down made a massive difference in predictions in short time.

I mean, weatherpeople can't even accurately predict weather for the current day, you honestly expect them to be able to accurately track a hurricane on a multi-week path?

All they do is throw out 500000 possibilities and pray one is right so they can say "We called it!"

zombiewizardhawk said:

I mean, weatherpeople can't even accurately predict weather for the current day, you honestly expect them to be able to accurately track a hurricane on a multi-week path?

All they do is throw out 500000 possibilities and pray one is right so they can say "We called it!"

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Well, there is some model work at play but that is based on historical and what happens when this happens. The problem with predicting a single hurricane even more than 4 days out is every little change on the planet affects it. Frontal boundary in the Rockies? Yup. Jetstream a 1000 miles away? yup. High pressure not moving 100 miles and only moving 50? Yup. Endless things within thousands of miles changes every little detail with one storm. So the hurricane is really based on a 1000 actions of weather in half the planet span which are constantly changing and yes, sometimes wrong.
They have become decent with tracks and general motion although they was way off on this one days ago but intensity and speed they are off fairly well.

Newest models show it more off coast and GFS/GEM show it not making landfall until Charleston, SC Wednesday. Staying off the coast of Florida enough to cause some surge and maybe cat 1 on shore. Of course that is constantly changing and if it made landfall in Florida obviously it'll be hell.

It's shaping up to be the biggest fuck you since the last big hurricane in prediction.
We'll see that the 5am update brings but right now all the models have it saying fuck Florida, I'm all about that Carolina life.

This is a few hours old now and obviously just as it has changed, it can change again but....

They basically phoned the 5am update in. I expect we'll see if they go with the model changes at 11am EST.

The orig dude that had the one crazy red line raking it in far north to NC is like "HAHA told u"

Do they ever compare the predicted paths to actual paths and rank the models that make the predictions. Every hurricane there's 20 paths and I don't know one from the other.

Yesterday one of the predicted paths had it crossing FL and into the gulf and crossing FL again and then going up the coast.

Borzak said:

Do they ever compare the predicted paths to actual paths and rank the models that make the predictions. Every hurricane there's 20 paths and I don't know one from the other.

Yesterday one of the predicted paths had it crossing FL and into the gulf and crossing FL again and then going up the coast.

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Usually. They favor some models over others based on past success rate so the ratio is ever changing. They used to not do that but a decade ago or so they did and the prediction got a bit better. East coast predictions are tougher than south and gulf because of the train out of here where it shoots back north and away from the US is ever changing in factors. Generally once they start north, they are on a one way ticket to Euroland, but rarely make it. I call them the Amelia's.

As suspected the new track has it not making landfall on Florida. The western side is a weakish side. It's still as of now going to batter the coast with insane waves, some surge, heavy rain and cat 1 winds but the eye itself will be offshore. Normally once it is in a 3 day window the prediction gets pretty good but this one is changing still. Better safe than rekt'd but I wouldn't be packing up just yet.

The NOAA P3 went out to it and was supposed to be on station quite awhile but it made one pass and came straight back. Not sure if damage or what but it is landing now 3 hours earlier than the flight plan.
So while the track has changed since my 5am post to what I was seeing, they should have time to run the models again for the 11am EST but may reflect in afternoon one.

The return was planned at 388mph but it flew the entire way back without deviating at 288mph.

Newer models have it even farther out to sea than the new path and almost all have it not making landfall. We'll see how that shows in prediction later today but it appears those nukes we used on it worked. Well done Trump!

Olebass said:

ya it peaked my curiosity. Found one on Amazon highly rated with lots of reviews and details. 2000 watt inverter( 2 1000s in one unit with 2 sets of hookups ) for $130. People have pushed it to max and it has held up well. Some even using it on solar. I need one anyways so adding to list. It isn't pure sine though.
My van holds 28 gallons and will idle at 2 liters a hour So a full tank would be over 50 hours of running.
Only issue is it has a 105 amp alt so 1250 watts/12 volt=104.2 amps so anything over 1250 watts would take all the alt and some battery discharge at 5500 rpms. Idle I think it 40 IL on the alt so anything over 480ish watts would be max load on alt. Maybe I should just got a nice 1000 watt one.

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I've got a 1000 watt (really 900 watts of steady power, but up to 2000 watts surge) inverter in the van and it was like $250. But mine is pure sine. We've used it pretty often.

It's part of a full system though. 100W solar panels, 100 amp lithium battery, full 12V wiring, and 3 110V outlets coming off the inverter (also have an isolater to recharge the battery off alternator, although our alternator is 220 amp I believe).

Just closed on my house in NE Florida on Thursday. I'm still in Jersey but either way, great timing! Asshole hurricane better not fuck up my new crib

Reminds me of the one winter storm where they predicted 'up to' 30" of snow, but it really came down to where the rain/snow temperature line would be and so that was a 0 to 30" range. There was a small band that came through early while it was still dark and put a thin layer on the grass so the whole government and school system closed. And then the sun came up and we got rain.

Back to the Future II weather prediction? HAH. At least we have pretty radar maps and satellite photos.

Welp. It gun' rain.

Hurricane forcasting is one place where I give them credit. Their accuracy isn't horrible and it's useful information. Except that one time where the hurrican stopped, turned around, and then started back up. You know those guys are like "c'mon. Just... c'mon".

The daily weather can go fuck itself.