2021 NFL Offseason: QB Carousel Imminent -- Retirement Boogaloo

Sterling · May 18, 2021

Right, all that stuff definitely is part of it.

Merrith · May 18, 2021

So much of baseball comes down to interaction between pitcher and hitter, as well. Hockey is another sport where analytics are starting to scratch the surface, but they're still not able to take in the whole picture yet. Shot quality in hockey is such a slippery thing to measure accurately.

Ambiturner · May 19, 2021

Fadaar said:
Baseball you have 162+ games a year to pull numbers from, hockey/basketball 82+. NFL you only have 16+. Factor that in with the 22 players involved in every single play and yeah it's tough to nail it down. I mean of course you generally know what to expect from players but there's just so much variance that can happen in such a small number of games.

On top of that you only have an average of 12ish possessions per game in the NFL vs over 100 with basketball and probably similar for hockey

Kaines · May 19, 2021

Ambiturner said:
On top of that you only have an average of 12ish possessions per game in the NFL vs over 100 with basketball and probably similar for hockey

Comparing possessions from football to basketball isn't exactly 1 to 1 as the average possession in football has multiple plays run. A basketball possession usually has one maybe two if you get an offensive rebound early in the shot clock.

DickTrickle · May 19, 2021

With all the formations and substitutions, it's really a lot of noisy data to try and extract meaningful information from.

People like to talk about clutch teams but almost all those teams that win the one score games one season regress the next, even if the team is largely the same.

Still, the nature of a football season and playoffs versus basketball or baseball is one reason why I like it. It only takes a few games to make a huge difference and in the playoffs it's much more wide open than a seven game series.

Merrith · May 19, 2021

DickTrickle said:
With all the formations and substitutions, it's really a lot of noisy data to try and extract meaningful information from.

People like to talk about clutch teams but almost all those teams that win the one score games one season regress the next, even if the team is largely the same.

Still, the nature of a football season and playoffs versus basketball or baseball is one reason why I like it. It only takes a few games to make a huge difference and in the playoffs it's much more wide open than a seven game series.

Calais Campbell made that point recently about one and done versus 7 game series, saying it was harder to win a Super Bowl than an NBA title because of it. Makes sense at least from that perspective. In basketball better team is almost always going to win out over 7 games.

There are aspects to series I like more than 1 and done, though. You get to a Game 7 in the NHL, and that series on the whole is going to have been better than any one NFL playoff game 99% of the time.

Sterling · May 19, 2021

Snaps would be a better way to break down football. But as people have been saying there's just a lot more variance to situations in football compared to other sports. Down and distance, field position, formation, etc. It's not to say that there aren't better stats now than there used to be, it's just not remotely on the same level of hoops even let alone baseball.

Brahma · May 19, 2021

Sterling said:
Analytics in baseball works well now because it's been refined. Hoops is getting better. Football analytics are kind of all over the place and not nearly as predictive.

Plus there are way too many outside variables. How good others are at their positions being the main culprit IMO.

BrutulTM · May 19, 2021

90% of baseball is 1 pitcher vs. 1 batter at a time. Much less complex game. Football also has more injuries. Injury can throw a wrench into any sport, but there's just more of them in football.

Gavinmad · May 19, 2021

Imagine how different the Super Bowl would have been if the Chiefs had an offensive line in front of Mahomes instead of a bunch of turnstiles.

Kaines · May 19, 2021

Gavinmad said:
Imagine how different the Super Bowl would have been if the Chiefs had an offensive line in front of Mahomes instead of a bunch of turnstiles.

Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"

Kirun · May 19, 2021

Kaines said:
Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"

Except Jimmy didn't do shit with Marino in Miami and kept getting blown out in the divisional rounds. I still maintain that Haley was far more responsible for that run than Jimmy ever was.

Kaines · May 19, 2021

Kirun said:
Except Jimmy didn't do shit with Marino in Miami and kept getting blown out in the divisional rounds. I still maintain that Haley was far more responsible for that run than Jimmy ever was.

I think Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Woodson and the rest were pretty big reasons as well that didn't go to Miami either. Saying it was one guy is completely retarded. However after Jimmy left, the draft classes got REALLY bad for awhile. Haley wasn't in the war room on draft day.

Merrith · May 19, 2021

Kaines said:
Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"

I don't know if this is quite the same when KC mostly just needed healthy starters. Down 4 starters out of 5 on the OL and having at least a backup or two out due to injury/opt out made it even worse.

Also Hill and Kelce suddenly forgetting how to catch the ball in the biggest game of the year.

Gavinmad · May 19, 2021

Kaines said:
Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"

Weren't most of their starters injured? That's a lot different from having a retarded owner.

Kaines · May 19, 2021

Gavinmad said:
Weren't most of their starters injured? That's a lot different from having a retarded owner.

The real loss of Jimmy came from talent evaluation

Sterling · May 19, 2021

Kaines said:
I think Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Woodson and the rest were pretty big reasons as well that didn't go to Miami either. Saying it was one guy is completely retarded. However after Jimmy left, the draft classes got REALLY bad for awhile. Haley wasn't in the war room on draft day.

He did well in Miami considering by that point Marino was on robot knees and a goat achilles and he didn't have a Hershel Walker trade to stockpile talent with. 8-8 his first season and made the playoffs the 3 following seasons winning 2 playoff games. He built a great defense that kept Wannstedt employed far too long before the coaching shitshow carousel started.