Poll Do you think Trump will actually win the presidency in November?
- Thread starter Adebisi
- Start date
- 5
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Still sticking with Abuela with 330 (maaaaybe 300 minimum), but the senate and house races may change after this BS with the FBI 11 days before an election. I don't care if its a repub or dem, you don't do this shit so close to an election. Hatch Act may even come into play now.
-Independent
-Independent
Chris
Potato del Grande
- 18,161
- -393
You guys have to understand that the new age of left wing SJW demonisation of the right makes all of the polls wrong. This happened four times in the UK in the last few years. Trump could actually win.
In the 2010 UK elections, before SJWs took over completely, it was a fairly well behaved election and the polls predicted the result down to one seat. It was crazy accurate. Elections before this had been getting more and more accurate polling so it wasn't a fluke.
In the 2015 UK elections, the Centre-Right Conservative party were demonised as starving the poor and wrecking healthcare. So people who supported them were afraid to admit it. A tie or narrow win with support from a third party for either main party was predicted but the Conservatives actually won outright, the polls were wrong. Similar things happened in the Scottish Referendum (remain voters demonised as hating Scotland and won with a larger margin than expected) and the European Elections (anti-EU party won most of the seats, including ones in Wales/Scotland/NIreland which was more than anyone feared to predict).
Then came Brexit. 52% of the country voted for that despite being labelled racists who want to destroy the future. Some thought it would be close, nobody thought it would win, the polls were wrong. I still see Facebook rants from friend of a friends raging against Brexit and calling people like me who voted for it racist.
So Trump is being demonised beyond even Brexit, people are not going to admit to voting for him. You have to factor in extra points for him in polls because of this.
In the 2010 UK elections, before SJWs took over completely, it was a fairly well behaved election and the polls predicted the result down to one seat. It was crazy accurate. Elections before this had been getting more and more accurate polling so it wasn't a fluke.
In the 2015 UK elections, the Centre-Right Conservative party were demonised as starving the poor and wrecking healthcare. So people who supported them were afraid to admit it. A tie or narrow win with support from a third party for either main party was predicted but the Conservatives actually won outright, the polls were wrong. Similar things happened in the Scottish Referendum (remain voters demonised as hating Scotland and won with a larger margin than expected) and the European Elections (anti-EU party won most of the seats, including ones in Wales/Scotland/NIreland which was more than anyone feared to predict).
Then came Brexit. 52% of the country voted for that despite being labelled racists who want to destroy the future. Some thought it would be close, nobody thought it would win, the polls were wrong. I still see Facebook rants from friend of a friends raging against Brexit and calling people like me who voted for it racist.
So Trump is being demonised beyond even Brexit, people are not going to admit to voting for him. You have to factor in extra points for him in polls because of this.
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B_Mizzle
Golden Baronet of the Realm
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I can't find the poll I used, but previously there were a few polls that showed the questions, refuse to answer and undecided. Trump's % inversely correlated with the refuse to answer line, almost perfectly I might add, and the refuse to answer line oscillated between 5-10%.
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radditsu
Silver Knight of the Realm
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- 826
The demographics of Britannia vs America are crazy different though, and much more of our party line is defined by race than England. The polling is much more predictive here than a rash of "nationalistic" (for lack of a better word in my brain, and I do not mean that word in a negative context) economic policy vote. What we see everyday in regards to polls are also a lot less accurate than the DNC and RNCs internal polling samples. Obama knew he was going to beat Romney about a week before the election happened. The Mid terms were predicted pretty much to the T two years ago internally. Comparing a Homogeneous place like the UK to the scope and scale of the US is just not a good predictor. A 1 to 2 percent shift in the popular vote may happen after this stuff went down, but we do not elect by popular vote. Killary was wining by 5% of the popular vote before this. And about 21 million or so ballots have been cast before any of this stuff voted. That is a pretty large chunk of the electorate who did not have this to make a decision. She is going to win, by hook or by crook.
- 21,131
- 80,758
Here is a thought experiment brought up by S. Adams:
So you are sitting at home watching TV with the spouse and the phone rings. Its a pollster. They ask you who you're voting for. Your spouse is in the room. What do you say?
Now, what percent of the population will say Clinton just to avoid an argument? Is it 0.5%? 1%? 2%? A 1% shift from polling results is a 2% swing in voting results.
So you are sitting at home watching TV with the spouse and the phone rings. Its a pollster. They ask you who you're voting for. Your spouse is in the room. What do you say?
Now, what percent of the population will say Clinton just to avoid an argument? Is it 0.5%? 1%? 2%? A 1% shift from polling results is a 2% swing in voting results.
ZyyzYzzy
RIP USA
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radditsu
Silver Knight of the Realm
- 4,676
- 826
It tightened a race that was already due for tightening. The bullshit 12% Hillary polls were never going to end up being true. She is not nearly as likeable as Obama.
The map is going to be the 2012 map MAYBE minus florida.
kegkilla
The Big Mod
- 11,320
- 14,738
I give Trump a ~2-3% handicap based on this as you mentioned here and the huge enthusiasm gap between Trump and Hillary voters.
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Tuco
I got Tuco'd!
- 45,398
- 73,466
I'm not comfortable with a 2pt handicap based on UK politics. Though the idea does have reasonable merit. The impact of the Bradley Effect is not new and should be controlled for by pollsters. How much it is impacting our election is unknown.
I could just as well say that some people who are mad at the system will be proud of bucking it publicly, but when it comes time to choose they'll pick a safe, status quo pick in HRC.
I could just as well say that some people who are mad at the system will be proud of bucking it publicly, but when it comes time to choose they'll pick a safe, status quo pick in HRC.
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- 80,758
Vandyn
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I agree with this. I still think she wins it's just not the blowout it could of been back in mid Oct. If he had about another month, assuming there was no more stuff coming out on him, he'd have a much better chance.
Shmoopy
Golden Baronet of the Realm
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The RCP average is only Clinton +1.3 right now:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Although 538 still has Donald at around 28% chance to win:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Although 538 still has Donald at around 28% chance to win:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Malakriss
Golden Baronet of the Realm
- 12,328
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To give you an idea of why the popular vote doesn't really matter my parents were stationed over in Europe and absentee voted, but it turns out that our state doesn't even count absentee ballots (or didn't back then) unless the race is close. So there's a 99% chance their ballots went untallied and did not get their +1s in the national vote.