You cant really predict NBA draft value. Look at the 2016 season, where Malcom Brogdon won rookie of the year. No one saw that coming,and the Bucks certainly didnt know what they had, but I also think it spoke to the lack of true talent in that draft pool. But then this year, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are playing like top picks, yet Markell Fultz is on a milk carton, Lonzo Ball looks like a bust, and Donovan Mitchell will win ROTY.
Its insane. A #1 or 2 pick can either be a Greg Oden or a Kevin Durant. Or when the Blazers passed on Micheal Jordan. You never know what your going to get. Knicks fans werent so excited about Porzingis but hat has worked out pretty well. Then they go with the frenchman and come up with a dub.
Id like to think a Marvin Bagley is a sure fire NBA star, but you just never know.
I'm not sure how much I agree with this. Nor do I think a one or two year evaluation is enough to really decide on how good a player is going to end up being. Brogdon won ROY because, yes the top of the the draft disappointed, it was a weak year and he was arguably much more NBA ready than most of that class (senior at Virginia) on a team where he wasn't asked to do a ton. Now he comes off the bench. Poor rookie seasons, but if you were redrafting 2016 you'd still take Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Murray, Poltl and Sabonis over him. And that's just after 1.5 years of production. Analytics are doing a better and better job of predicting NBA success for college prospects and it's certainly way, way, way too early to make any kind of determination on the player Fultz will be long term.
Oden is an odd example too, because he was insanely productive during the short stretch that he actually played. Injuries killed his career, not bad draft scouting. He was certainly worth that pick when it happened.
Busts are a thing and this isn't a perfect science by any means, but "you can't really predict draft value" with Oden and Brogdon as your proof isn't a very convincing argument to me.
I really like Bagley still. Just hard for me to think a guy that athletic won't succeed. I understand the comments though. Both Ayton and Bamba are showing a bit more offensive refinement. Either way and exciting top of the draft class this year.
@SI_LeeJenkins
Quote:
The Clippers held their free agent meeting with Griffin at Staples. They lowered the lights in the arena and raised his jersey to the rafters as a choir sang. The PA announcer said: "Tonight, we’re honoring a lifelong Clipper."
Blake Griffin clear #1 franchise guy of all time for the Clippers, big song and dance to keep him this summer, now shuffled off to dunk all over your memories twice a year.
This was before Jerry West wasn't it? I may be confused there though. The truth is, there's only 3 places to be in the NBA, bottoming out, middle of the pack or one of the two or three actual contending teams. There is certainly an argument that there is still a ton of franchise value to being in that second category, but after losing Paul the Clippers had no possible way to get to that top level (even though they weren't really going to get there anyway) with Blake and DJ's contracts. It's a good move on their part. If CP3 is still on that team, maybe you're content with the 3 or 4 seed for the next two or three years before kicking off this rebuild, but it makes sense after losing him.
