2021 NFL Offseason: QB Carousel Imminent -- Retirement Boogaloo

Genjiro

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Wasnt that Browns team a playoff team or did really well? Hard to remember back that far but I know they had 1 decent year.

But yea, the NFL is an unknown bro. Fans who read draft shit always talk the chalk

Look at 17

en.wikipedia.org

2017 NFL Draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

How many teams would not in hindsight draft Patrick Mahomes now before the Chiefs pick at 10? You could argue every single team would be retarded to not do that, even with pro bowlers like Garrett. That many teams got it dead wrong. Regardless of their QB situation, if those guys could see the future they would likely ALL take him. Look at all the shit teams in this draft who need a QB this year. Many of them missed then too.

It's a crazy process.
 
Merrith

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Genjiro said:
Wasnt that Browns team a playoff team or did really well? Hard to remember back that far but I know they had 1 decent year.

But yea, the NFL is an unknown bro. Fans who read draft shit always talk the chalk

Look at 17

en.wikipedia.org

2017 NFL Draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

How many teams would not in hindsight draft Patrick Mahomes now before the Chiefs pick at 10? You could argue every single team would be retarded to not do that, even with pro bowlers like Garrett. That many teams got it dead wrong. Regardless of their QB situation, if those guys could see the future they would likely ALL take him. Look at all the shit teams in this draft who need a QB this year. Many of them missed then too.

It's a crazy process.
Click to expand...

They (2007 Cleveland) went 10-6 but lost division tiebreaker and a wild card tiebreaker. That sucks.

I'll say this, there were some that thought Mahomes went too high in that draft (at the time). I remember QB rankings for that draft being all over the place. I can't hate on the Garrett pick because he's been a monster when he isn't trying to kill Steeler QB's with a helmet. But yeah, clearly in hindsight, every team that picked 1-9 in that draft would take Mahomes instead, hands down.
 
Genjiro

Genjiro

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And just to illustrate my point with the draft day thing for fun. Y'all see this shit? Kid has a fucking arm.

www.nfl.com

'That's the throw of the pro day season': Wilson's unorthodox bomb wows Lewis

BYU Cougars QB Zach Wilson wows NFL Network's Rhett Lewis at his 2021 pro day.
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com

Draft day lets pretend no trades happened. This scenario isnt outrageous or anything.

What if the Jags who were thought to be on Lawrence all along but over time with pro days etc it changes and this kind of thing in the video above convinces them to take Wilson at 1? The Jets liked Justin Fields all along, they think he is the next Mahomes and stick with their dude.

So now the Fins are sitting really fucking pretty and have *multiple* team who all think Trevor Lawrence is the next fucking goat and Jax and the Jets are retarded. Weird stuff has happened in the past like this. They could end up with the 49ers trade ++++, its not like SF isnt going to be sitting there not needing a QB right? What if SF assumed Lawrence isnt there either and you could get more? I just think its smart to wait and maximize your position.

But yea, its wild to read Chiefs accounts of drafting Mahomes and they are like, "ummmmmmm, I guess nobody saw what we did?" I mean, now we are all believers and you wouldnt question it but they got blasted for that pick by the *experts* and media/fans etc. KC fans were not happy on draft day.

Edit: going back and reading some of these grades lol

USA Today:

10. Patrick Mahomes, QB Texas Tech — Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo)​

Grade: C-​

Analysis: Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick.

Mel Kiper: C+

The other ESPN genius Terd McShay, their QB guru had Mahomes at 85 on his 100 point scale graded below Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, and Mark Sanchez (lol 96 buttfumble)
 
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DickTrickle

DickTrickle

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And, you know, for all the misses just on the talent aspect of it and how it relates to where/who they played, there's so much that happens after the draft. The pressures of being a high profile person, responsibility of leading a team, the different coaches and their schemes, how much the team around them sucks or is great, and for some of them just moving away from family can be a big change. So, yeah, it's why even the best drafters over time are not that much better than the worst.

I do remember KC largely did hate the Mahomes pick. Consensus was something like, "Yeah, maybe he'll be able to take over from Smith one day, but we're a playoff team looking to win the SB NOW and this didn't help!" Haha.

The year he took over, before the season, KC radio talking heads would have a heated argument about whether he'd get to 25 TDs or not, heh.
 
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Jozu

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Does anyone really think that justin Fields can turn into a Patrick Mahomes lite?

I dont.

Is Zach Wilson real? I just am not sold on any of this year QB's besides Lawrence.

Maybe Lance turns into a Russel Wilson type player who is dynamic and provides massive value on his rookie deal. But out of the big 4 QB's in this years draft, history says 3 will flop.
 
zzeris

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Genjiro said:
12th pick you say? Great QBs *never* drop past those picks. Teams miss all the fucking time and let good players drop(see below) or the consensus is dead fucking wrong (also see below). Ryan Leaf + an untold amount of other shit QBs were drafted higher than these guys. Even if someone *is* considered a top pick sometimes teams just dont pick them, regardless of how they turn out. Plus not *all* the top teams picking need a QB and you dont even have to worry about those teams. Point is its still better to wait and see because crazy shit happens on draft day, especially when teams are on the clock.

Avatar bet on top 3 picks is retarded because we dont know if they will ever be good or were as good as advertised until at least a few years into their careers. I give zero fucks about some bet picking the blue chips that turn out as duds. All it proves is team X missed bigtime.

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Click to expand...

I don't understand how this is so hard for you. I never mentioned a top QB dropping and using the incredibly rare 'Look at Aaron Rodgers!!" from SIXTEEN YEARS ago means nothing today. I'd use the more recent Jackson. I stated the 49'ers want what they consider is a top 2-3 QB and don't think he will be there at 12. Dolphins want a specific guy or two and don't think they will be there at 12. It's a really fucking simple concept and I agree with them. Doing it on draft day and hoping you 'get lucky!' is pretty fucking poor planning.

Most of these guys are probably control freaks. I'm surprised others haven't don't this more often. Plan ahead, ensure you pick where you want as much as possible without extra outliers. Don't decide in the 10 minute window, decide a month earlier. Waiting until draft day and saying, "Let's roll the dice on my job!" every year seems stupid. Good jobs, Grier, Roseman, and Lynch!
 
Sterling

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Obviously the draft isn't perfect. Also obvious you're going to have some outliers. There's going to be very good players late in round 1, or even in other rounds of the draft. That and the quality of the team drafting them matters. That being said if you took the average quality of player over the last 15 drafts and compared say picks 1-5 and picks 28-32 as an aggregate I'm reasonably sure that the first group is going to be way better. This seems like an obvious no shit kind of thing, but people talking about it like draft position barely matters or something.
 
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Jozu

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You never know.

Maybe Fields does turn into a Pro Bowl QB. Maybe he turns into a sack and pick machine. Wilson same deal. It could go either way. I find it hard to believe that Lawrence will just somehow be a bust though. He has put a lot on tape and has the tools to succeed in the NFL. No reason he cant come in and have a Joe Burrow type rookie season.
 
zzeris

zzeris

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We can armchair GM all we want because it costs us nothing. Our multi-million dollar jobs aren't on the line. We can call out obvious fuck-ups but as Genjiro noted, the draft is crazy. These guys want the best chance at winning a luck based game. Using Rodgers, what if he had been drafted 3rd by the Browns? Would he have been as successful? Thrown out immediately into that shitstorm? Maybe, maybe not. What about Mahomes? What if he had went 4th to Jax or 6th to the Jets? Look at how the best college QB maybe ever was injured at Cincy because they didn't protect him. It's all luck based but you want to up your odds.

The draft is crazy and there are dozens of misses by experts and GMs every year. With that said, in a QB centric league, QBs usually go faster than slower. Especially after the Rodgers fuck up. Especially after Jackson and Mahomes. These mistakes only reinforce that if you hadn't sat on your ass, you'd have Mahomes, or Jackson. That people eventually lost their high paid cushy jobs because they picked Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams all in the top 5 of that draft. Lynch upped his odds early and he put incredible pressure on the Jets and other teams.
 
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Brahma

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Genjiro said:
And just to illustrate my point with the draft day thing for fun. Y'all see this shit? Kid has a fucking arm.

www.nfl.com

'That's the throw of the pro day season': Wilson's unorthodox bomb wows Lewis

BYU Cougars QB Zach Wilson wows NFL Network's Rhett Lewis at his 2021 pro day.
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com

Draft day lets pretend no trades happened. This scenario isnt outrageous or anything.

What if the Jags who were thought to be on Lawrence all along but over time with pro days etc it changes and this kind of thing in the video above convinces them to take Wilson at 1? The Jets liked Justin Fields all along, they think he is the next Mahomes and stick with their dude.

So now the Fins are sitting really fucking pretty and have *multiple* team who all think Trevor Lawrence is the next fucking goat and Jax and the Jets are retarded. Weird stuff has happened in the past like this. They could end up with the 49ers trade ++++, its not like SF isnt going to be sitting there not needing a QB right? What if SF assumed Lawrence isnt there either and you could get more? I just think its smart to wait and maximize your position.

But yea, its wild to read Chiefs accounts of drafting Mahomes and they are like, "ummmmmmm, I guess nobody saw what we did?" I mean, now we are all believers and you wouldnt question it but they got blasted for that pick by the *experts* and media/fans etc. KC fans were not happy on draft day.

Edit: going back and reading some of these grades lol

USA Today:

10. Patrick Mahomes, QB Texas Tech — Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo)​

Grade: C-​

Analysis: Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick.

Mel Kiper: C+

The other ESPN genius Terd McShay, their QB guru had Mahomes at 85 on his 100 point scale graded below Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, and Mark Sanchez (lol 96 buttfumble)
Click to expand...

Holy fuck! Wow did they ever get that wrong!
 
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zzeris

zzeris

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Sterling said:
As a thing Ronnie Brown was a beast until his injury and was just never the same after it.
Click to expand...

He was an awesome 'QB' of the wildcat. I'll leave it at that. Ricky was better even with all the drama and suspensions.
 
Chanur

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There is a lot that goes into picking a good qb. The mosy important things in my opinion are his ability to read the defense and stand tall to make the plays when requires. Arm strength and height and all that crap barely matters in my opinion. Then it comes down to team and offense style. Some QBs are not hall of fame guys but would be good to border line great in the right offenses. How ever more often than not the coaches force the QB into their play style and end up dog shit.

In the end they have more going against a new QB than for them.
 
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Genjiro

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zzeris said:
I don't understand how this is so hard for you. I never mentioned a top QB dropping and using the incredibly rare 'Look at Aaron Rodgers!!" from SIXTEEN YEARS ago means nothing today. I'd use the more recent Jackson. I stated the 49'ers want what they consider is a top 2-3 QB and don't think he will be there at 12. Dolphins want a specific guy or two and don't think they will be there at 12. It's a really fucking simple concept and I agree with them. Doing it on draft day and hoping you 'get lucky!' is pretty fucking poor planning.

Most of these guys are probably control freaks. I'm surprised others haven't don't this more often. Plan ahead, ensure you pick where you want as much as possible without extra outliers. Don't decide in the 10 minute window, decide a month earlier. Waiting until draft day and saying, "Let's roll the dice on my job!" every year seems stupid. Good jobs, Grier, Roseman, and Lynch!
Click to expand...
Holy shit is this that hard? Stop eating glue. I used Rodgers since its the most glaring outside of the obvious, but there are a fuckton of examples and didnt feel like listing them all. Hi Russel Wilson?

And yea herpderp there are NO GMs we can think of who are good at doing what I just fucking said and fleecing teams in the draft, right? Nah. None. The reason you just listed as Brilliant analysis! is why all these shitass teams continually draft at the top every year.
 
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BrutulTM

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You know just because you said something in this thread and a bunch of people disagreed with you doesn't mean you have to defend it like it's your PHD thesis. It's possible that they made a mistake. It's possible that they didn't. We'll never know the answer. Who gives a fuck?

itssotiresome.gif
 
Merrith

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It's more likely that multiple things are true. GM's fuck up in the draft all the time...and there's going to be some QB's taken early this year.
 
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